R package for fitting Bayesian transition models to produce estimates and projections of family planning indicators. This work was supported, in whole or in part, by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-00844).
Installation
Dependencies
-
cmdstanr: Instructions for installingcmdstanrare available in their Getting started guide. - R package
localhierarchy, available at github.com/AlkemaLab/localhierarchy. You can install it usingremotes::install_github("AlkemaLab/localhierarchy").
Install fpet2 from Github:
remotes::install_github("AlkemaLab/fpet2")
Information
The modeling approach is described in Alkema et al. (2024). This approach builds off collaborative research with the United Nations Population Division (UNPD). References to earlier and related work are included below.
The national-level data and population estimates by marital status are compiled and published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD). Track20 compiled a database of subnational data.
References that describe the current approach:
FPET overview: L. Alkema, H. Susmann, E. Ray, S. Mooney, N. Cahill, K. Bietsch, A. Jayachandran, et al. (2024). Statistical Demography Meets Ministry of Health: The Case of the Family Planning Estimation Tool. See https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.00007.
Use of service statistics data (Estimated modern use): S. Mooney, L. Alkema, E. Sonneveldt, K. Bietsch, J. Williamson, N. Cahill (2024). Enhancing the Use of Family Planning Service Statistics Using a Bayesian Modelling Approach to Inform Estimates of Modern Contraceptive Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. See https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2412.08606.
References that describe earlier approaches:
Alkema, L. et al. (2013). National, regional and global rates and trends in contraceptive prevalence and unmet need for family planning between 1990 and 2015: a systematic and comprehensive analysis. The Lancet. Available at http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)62204-1/abstract.
Cahill et al., (2017). Modern contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the Family Planning 2020 initiative: a systematic analysis using the Family Planning Estimation Tool. The Lancet. Available at http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)33104-5/fulltext.
Kantorova et al. (2020). Estimating progress towardsmeeting women’s contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierarchical modellingstudy. PLOS Medicine, 17(2):e1003026. Available at https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003026.
Wheldon et al. (2018). Methods for estimating and projecting key family planning indicators among all women of reproductive age. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Technical Paper No. 2. New York: United Nations. Available at https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/technical/TP2018-2.pdf.
The model is written in R and Stan. For any questions, feedback or suggestions, please contact Leontine at lalkema(at)umass.edu.
Example
See articles on package website, at https://alkemalab.github.io/fpet2.
Citation
Please cite as follows:
citation("fpet2")
#> To cite package 'fpet2' in publications use:
#>
#> Alkema L, Susmann H, Mooney S, Ray E (2025). _fpet2: An R Package for
#> Estimation and Forecasting of Family Planning Indicators_. R package
#> version 1.2, <https://github.com/AlkemaLab/fpet2>.
#>
#> A BibTeX entry for LaTeX users is
#>
#> @Manual{,
#> title = {fpet2: An R Package for Estimation and Forecasting of Family Planning Indicators},
#> author = {Leontine Alkema and Herbert Susmann and Shauna Mooney and Evan Ray},
#> year = {2025},
#> note = {R package version 1.2},
#> url = {https://github.com/AlkemaLab/fpet2},
#> }